- The Projection of Medical Care Expenditure in View of Population Age Change.
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Seung Hum Yu, Sang Hyuk Jung, Jeung Mo Nam, Hyohn Joo Oh
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Korean J Prev Med. 1992;25(3):303-311.
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 Abstract
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- It is very important to estimate the future medical care expenditure, because medical care expenditure escalation is a big problem not only in the health industry but also in the Korean economy today. This study was designed to project the medical care expenditure in view of population age change. The data of this study were the population projection data based on National Census Data (1990) of the National Statistical Office and the Statistical Reports of the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The future medical care expenditure was eatimated by the regression model and the optional simulation model. The significant results are as follows; 1. The future medical care expenditure will be 3,963 billion Won in the year 2000, 4,483 billion Won in 2010, and 4,826 billion Won in 2020, based on the 1990 market price considering only the population age change. 2. The proportion of the total medical care expenditure in the elderly over 65 will be 10. 4% in 2000, 13.5% in 2010, and 16.9% in 2020. 3. The future medical care expenditure will be 4,306 billion Won in the year 2000, 5,1101 billion Won in 2010, and 5, 699 billion Won in 2020 based on the 1990 market price considering the age structure change and the change of the case-cost estimated by the regression model. 4. When we consider the age-structure change and inflation compared with the preceding year, the future medical care expenditurein 2020 will be 21 trillion Won based on a 5% inflation rate, 42 trillion Won based on a 7.5% inflation rate, and 84 trillion Won based on a 10% inflation rate. Consideration of the aged (65 years old and over)will be essential to understand the acute increase of medical care expenditure due to changes in age structure of the population. Therefore, alternative policies and programs for the caring of the aged should be further studied.
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Summary
- Tracking of blood pressure during childhood.
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Soon Young Lee, Il Seo, Jeung Mo Nam
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Korean J Prev Med. 1991;24(2):161-170.
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- The purpose of this study is to find the tracking blood pressure in primary school-age children. A follow-up study was conducted from 1986 to 1990 on 330 first grade children attending primary schools in Kangwha County, Kyungki-Do. Basically we employed a linear regression model with random coefficients to figure out the relation between blood pressure changes and initial blood pressure. We obtained the following results; 1. The mean blood pressures were increased grade went up in both sexs and were generally higher in female than male except for the systolic blood pressure at first grade. The size of difference was about 0.8 mmHg in mean systolic blood pressure and 1.5 mmHg in mean diastolic blood pressure. 2. The average annual increasing rates of systolic blood pressure were 2.5 mmHg in male and 3.1 mmHg in female respectively. For the diastolic blood pressure IV the average annual increasing rates were observed to be 3.0 mmHg in male and 2.9 mmHg in female respectively. Increasing rate of systolic blood pressure was significantly higher in female than male. 3. The adjusted regression coefficient of systolic blood pressure change on initial value was -0.11 in male and -0.13 in female and that coefficient of diastolic blood pressure change on initial value was -0.01 in male and -0.11 in female. This result shows that children with higher initial blood pressure do not pick up their blood pressure faster than others with lower initial blood pressure. There is no evidence of tracking of blood pressure in children. It is essential to find the earliest age having the tracking of blood pressure and we leave it for the further study.
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